Uganda opposition sleepless over Mbabazi ‘nightmare’

Even as he went head to head with security forces during the first leg of his nationwide consultations this week, former prime minister Amama Mbabazi is fast emerging as the opposition’s new dilemma.

His reluctance to sign on to the protocols of The Democratic Alliance (TDA), and instead asking for extensions that eat into the margin for putting its house in order, is causing unease in the opposition alliance, with some members beginning to suspect his intentions.

For the second time in less than a week, two deadlines for the return of nomination forms for the selection of TDA’s joint presidential candidate were revised to allow Mbabazi to decide whether he formally wants to be part of this collection of major political parties and groups, whose aim is to wrest power from the NRM, which has held it for 29 years.

Mbabazi picked up the forms on Tuesday, September 8, three days after the expiry of the first deadline. He should have returned them on Thursday, September 10, but asked for an extra day.

Earlier, none of the officials at TDA would comment on whether he would return the forms. His lawyer, however, had promised he would return them.

“The jury is still out on this, I believe. Compromise is the watchword in politics… don’t you forget,” said a TDA official charged with publicity and communications.

However, on the due date — September 11 — Mbabazi picked another set of nomination forms but by the time of going to press, he had not returned them. Sources said he wants the TDA candidate selected through a ballot rather than consensus as per the party protocol.

Yet even if he were to sign the forms, there is a feeling he may remain lukewarm to the alliance or run as an independent candidate in the event he is not selected to lead TDA against President Yoweri Museveni, to whom he was a right-hand man for four decades.

This thinking, according to sources, is borne out of the fact that Mbabazi is unlikely to be handed TDA’s flag ahead of Dr Kizza Besigye, a former president of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) — Uganda’s largest opposition party.

Dr Besigye, who has run against President Museveni thrice now, is the most favoured candidate among three who have so far expressed interest in leading the alliance in next year’s General Election. Others are Norbert Mao, president of the Democratic Party and former vice president Prof Gilbert Bukenya.

READ: Besigye picked to face Museveni in Uganda elections

“Mbabazi lacks charisma and that’s what you need for impact. He may be a good man and with a good message, but he is not convincing about it. And that is key because in our politics, it is not so much what you have to say but how convincing you are in saying it,” remarked a top TDA officials who is charged with its daily activities.

“His other undoing appears to be the failure or reluctance to reveal who is with him. If he were to present at least five ministers who are ready to stand with him, or some MPs, it would help. A few that we knew were bought off. It may be the case that none exists,” the official added.

As it is, should Mbabazi be passed by, he is not expected to play second fiddle to any eventual winner.

Some figures within the opposition (and particularly inside FDC) are concerned this may affect the two most important ways in which he would be most useful to their efforts to defeat Museveni: Wooing some NRM members away and augmenting their financial and intelligence/security resources.
Sources say it is this that explains in large part why the opposition has been instrumental in organising and mobilising for Mbabazi’s first leg of consultations over his presidential aspirations. The ex-premier has been bringing out mammoth crowds first in the eastern border town of Mbale, where he started, onto Kapchorwa, Soroti and eventually in Jinja.

In Mbale, for instance, Nandala Mafabi, currently the secretary-general of FDC, reportedly made available not only his campaign agents, but space for most of the planning meetings.

In Soroti, a number of opposition MPs also lent their support to him. In Jinja, Mbabazi’s mobilisation team is headed by Robert Kanusu, a known functionary of the Uganda People’s Congress who has never left the party.

The idea is to shore up Mbabazi’s candidature first in order to energise his own support within the NRM, inspire interest among other disgruntled NRM members who may not necessarily be looking at him as yet, and draw a lot more people to the polls because of his “newness” to the race, all of which they hope will work to their advantage.

READ: Why the Mbabazi-Museveni contest matters in politics

IN THE RUNNING

The Democratic Alliance is seeking a joint presidential candidate to lead it against President Yoweri Museveni.

Amama Mbabazi: His reluctance to sign the protocols of TDA has been worrying the opposition; still there is a feeling he may remain lukewarm to the alliance.

Dr Kizza Besigye: A former president of the Forum for Democratic Change, is the most favourite candidate.

Norbert Mao: President of the Democratic Party

Prof Gilbert Bukenya: Former vice president

OP The East African