One month gone, one more to go in ugly campaigns full of speculation

As the election campaigns in Tanzania clock three weeks, there are signs that the tone of some of the campaigners is steadily becoming uglier with accusations and counter-accusations of foul play dominating the headlines.

The two main contenders, CCM’s John Magufuli and Chadema’s Edward Lowassa, have avoided trading mudslinging barbs but their lieutenants have demonstrated no such restraint.

Even outgoing President Jakaya Kikwete, the CCM chairman, has not stayed above the fray, allowing himself to be drawn into a verbal tussle with Chadema’s chief legal counsel Tundu Lissu over who was responsible for the so-called Richmond scandal.

Whereas the head of state had hinted at a public meeting that it was Lowassa who was responsible, Lissu insisted it was the president who was implicated.

An article published in an American newspaper and purportedly authored by CCM secretary-general Abdulrahman Kinana criticised Lowassa over a statement the latter is alleged to have made to the effect that he would, if elected, free Muslim clerics imprisoned in Zanzibar for terrorism. He implied that Lowassa supports terrorism.

Then claims emerged that an opposition party was training youths in a neighbouring country to deploy them to disrupt the October 25 election. There has been no substantiation of these claims and, apart from the authorities saying they would investigate, little has come out of the statements. What has happened for sure is that a couple of people have died in campaign-related violence.

Fearing escalation in violence as polling day draws closer, several institutions, including religious and civil society organisations, have called for moderation in the speeches made at campaign rallies and restraint in the tone of messages carried on social media. However, the recently enacted social media law, ostensibly designed to curb cyber crime, is yet to be put into action.

The National Electoral Commission chairman, retired judge Damian Lubuva, last week cautioned campaigners against the use of abusive and inflammatory language, saying that could lead to a breach of the law.

Meanwhile, on the campaign trail, the two main contenders have continued to promise bliss everywhere they go, causing some observers to wonder how all these pledges can ever be delivered.

Among other goodies, they have promised to build seaports and airports and expand existing ones; resuscitate dead factories and put up new ones; offer free education from nursery school to college; build well-equipped referral hospitals; revise mining contracts entered into by the outgoing government; and pay old-age subsistence allowances to senior citizens.

The promises have been made at all levels — the main presidential candidates, parliamentary candidates and the ward candidates vying for seats in the district councils — without anyone bothering to elaborate the cost aspect.

Dr Omary Mbura, a senior lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam, told a local newspaper: “It’s alright to make promises to your constituents as long as you explain to them how you intend to finance your promises.

“When you say you intend to give free education for every child from nursery to university, tell us how you will cover the attendant cost.”

Journalism lecturer Haruna Taratibu thinks it is wrong to give “false hope to people who are in real need of a better life by throwing unrealistic promises at them.”

The vice-president of Chadema (Mainland), Prof Abdallah Safari, was of the same view as the don, giving the example of CCM, the “ruling party for the past 50 years, and which has been making these same promises all the while. It is now up to CCM to tell us how they intend to put those promises into practice, having failed to do so for half a century.”
Opinion polls

There was also controversy over polls and surveys. As the campaigns approached the “half-time” mark, an opinion survey stirred contestation when it suggested that more than two-thirds of Tanzanians would vote for CCM and Magufuli as opposed to Chadema and Lowassa. Twaweza, a region-wide research outfit active in East Africa, released its findings of a survey of different groups based on age and place of domicile (rural and urban).

READ: Poll puts Tanzania’s ruling party candidate ahead of Lowassa

Presented by respected social researcher Aidan Eyakuze, the report suggests that while the opposition is likely to post significant gains in urban areas and among the younger generation and the more highly educated voters, CCM is still strong in the rural areas, among the elderly and within less educated circles.

This report was immediately castigated by Chadema and its allies within Ukawa as full of prejudice and devoid of any realistic research. Some commentators even questioned Eyakuze’s impartiality given his close relationship with a senior youth within the CCM cadre, January Makamba.

Some traders at the main Kariakoo market took the argument to another, comical level when they decided to carry out their own “completely transparent” survey. They put up a makeshift “polling station” by the roadside and invited all passers-by to cast their “votes” for either Lowassa or Magufuli. The final tally? Ninety-seven per cent for Lowassa and two per cent for Magufuli.

There are a number of interesting phenomena on the campaign trail, including the spectacle of Magufuli doing push-ups on the dais to the applause of the audience. The point is to show how fit he is compared with his opponent, whose health has been a subject of speculation. Still, “Team Lowassa” insist their candidate is hale and hearty. In one news programme, he was even seen breaking into a short jog.

Another cause for speculation has been the absence of Magufuli’s wife, who will become First Lady in the event he is elected. Indeed, Janet Magufuli has not been seen in public with her husband since early in the campaign. By contrast, Regina Lowassa has been all over the campaign trail, complementing her husband’s effort by meeting privately with groups of women and youth.

Another absence that has been fuelling suspicion is that of the main leaders of Chadema, who have not been seen accompanying Lowassa for the past week or so, resulting in speculation that party chairman Freeman Mbowe has abandoned Lowassa.

“Nonsense,” said a senior Chadema official.

“The fact is, Mbowe, Tundu Lissu, John Mnyika, Halima Mdee, Jospeh Mbilinyi and others have constituency campaigns to run. You don’t expect them to be with Lowassa all the time.”